Florida Home Watch Association

Updated Tropical Weather Report
The two tropical systems we've been monitoring in the western central Atlantic continue their northward progression with track forecasts remaining largely consistent with yesterday's projections. Tropical Storm Humberto maintains its position farther east, while Invest 94-L (expected to be named Imelda) continues tracking toward a potential Carolina coast impact.

Current System Status
Invest 94-L has not yet achieved tropical storm status but is forecast to develop over the Bahamas late this weekend. Current projections continue to show this system potentially approaching or making landfall along the Carolina coast next week, with track guidance remaining relatively stable from previous forecasts.

Forecast Changes and Intensity Considerations
A notable development has been the projected intensity reduction for 94-L, largely attributed to the continued strengthening of Humberto positioned farther out in the Atlantic. This intensification of Humberto presents a potentially favorable scenario for most of the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. This scenario may reduce the intensity and impact for the Carolinas significantly, however only time will tell.

Steering Dynamics Update
The strengthening of Humberto could prove beneficial for storm steering. If Humberto continues to intensify, it may create sufficient atmospheric influence to pull Imelda—or its remnants—eastward and out to sea, potentially sparing the entire U.S. Eastern coastline from significant impacts.

Alternative Scenarios
While the majority of forecast models maintain the Carolina coast track, a small number of projections show the possibility of the system making a sharp eastward turn and moving harmlessly out to sea. However, this scenario is not considered the most likely outcome at this time.

Current Risk Assessment
The threat to Florida remains minimal, with the primary area of concern continuing to be the Carolina coast. The evolving interaction between Humberto and 94-L will be critical in determining the final track and intensity of the approaching system.

Preparation Recommendations
Carolina coast residents should continue monitoring forecasts closely and maintain basic preparedness measures. Florida residents can remain at a lower state of alert while continuing to monitor these developing systems.